Russia and Ukraine are in the thick of their second spring at war with each other. Throughout the past year, it has been a war of attrition. There have been advancements on both sides, but small ones at that. Yet, with recent developments in the conflict, there are signs that things are beginning to unfold at a more rapid pace, one day at a time.  

In other areas of the conflict, Russia has accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of attacks on Russia and its political officials, including an assassination attempt on Vladimir Putin with a drone on May 3, apparently targeted at the Kremlin itself. The U.S. government has yet to confirm if the claims are true, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces and president Vladimir Zelensky have come out during a visit to Finland stating, “We are not attacking Putin or Moscow, we are fighting on our territory, defending our villages and cities.” These are outright denial claims, but in the fog of war, one can be unsure of the validity of this sort of claim and furthermore a denial of this event.  

This week, Russia has also sent a swath of missiles hurling towards all areas of Ukraine, causing massive disruption in everyday life and even putting a majority of the country in an air raid warning at one point. The missiles had killed at least 25 people by April 28, 2023, according to Reuters, and saw the decimation of buildings and took lives. In addition, there have been two other strikes within the last six days, resulting in a bombing of a Kherson grocery store and infrastructural and legistical hubs for the Ukranians. These missile barages were the first Ukraine had seen in nearly two months.  

As recent as this past week, there have been a multitude of rumors circulating on pro-Russian telegram channels stating that Ukraine has now, for the first time, been able to set up a semi-perminant supply location on the bank of the Dnipro river, opposite to the city of Kherson. While these areas of control are small in size, this seemingly has a great effect on the trajectory of the war and the future of the conflicts’ strategic path, as Ukraine has struggled fiercly with Russia in any attempts to establish a landing on the Russian controlled bank.  

Ukraine has also been accused of other moves, such as an attack on an oil tanker near Sevastopol, a city in Crimea, where Russia houses much of its Black Sea Fleet, and Sevastopol is a critical point in Russian supply lines. Although, this is another attack which Ukriane has denied taking any part in.   

Moves such as these are thought to be in preparation for the ensuing counter-offense by Ukraine. This counter-offense has been something which has been greatly speculated on by both Russian and Western media outlets, and has seen great attention given to the Kherson area with the focus being to retake Crimea. While the recapturing of Crimea is a grand goal for the Ukrainian military, in past counter-offenses, as seen during last summer, Ukraine has tricked the Russian military into focusing their resources on one area, flipping the script and attacking another.  

During the summer offensive of summer 2022, Ukraine had also said it focused its forces on the Kherson region with the goal being to retake Kherson city (which they did eventually take back during the winter), and eventually Crimea. In a response, Russia moved many of its resources to the region, leaving parts of eastern Ukraine less protected. Seeing an opportunity, Ukraine focused much of its forces on the East, successfully taking back huge areas of land, and, with it, claiming expensive Russian machinery.  

At the end of the day, we cannot predict what will happen in the coming months and possibly years, but seeing that things are starting to move more rapidly, slowly but surely spells out that there is something to come.