Photo via the Odyssey

The Oscars will kick off on Sunday, February 26, with Jimmy Kimmel hosting. Since awards season is nearly over, many are speculating as to who the big winners will be, basing choices off of other awards ceremonies that have already concluded. Here are my predictions for film’s biggest night.

First of all, there will almost certainly be plenty of political commentary, jokes, and speeches. Kimmel will likely open the ceremony with a political joke and pepper his opening monologue with others. Presenters and winners will also surely incorporate political content into their remarks as well.

Another topic likely to be brought up is race. The Oscars and their parent body, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, have faced criticism in recent years for the lack of diversity among nominees. This year, however, the nominees exhibit more diversity than in years past. Whether the comments made will be congratulatory towards this progress, about progress that still needs to be made, or a mixture of both remains to be seen.

Kimmel will do a good job as host. He recently hosted the Emmys and had plenty of great jokes. Jimmy Fallon, who hosted the Golden Globes this year, had a good cold open but an awkward and unfunny execution for the rest of the ceremony. As a result, he did not set the bar very high for the rest of awards season. I feel that Kimmel will do a much better job and will not rely as much on gimmicks.

As far as awards go, many are a tough call. La La Land is leading with nominations and swept its Golden Globe nominations. Although there is a strong correlation between Golden Globe and Oscar wins, voters may be hesitant to hand La La Land trophy after trophy. It will be especially difficult for it to win Best Picture. Moonlight has been gaining a lot of traction, and although the Academy has a soft spot for musicals, it is rare that the Golden Globe winner for Best Musical or Comedy ends up winning Best Picture. My prediction for Best Picture is Moonlight. Best Actor will either go to Denzel Washington or Casey Affleck. Unfortunately, there is little chance that Laurentian Viggo Mortensen will win. Affleck won the Golden Globe, but Washington won the SAG. It is anyone’s guess.

Best Actress will probably go to Emma Stone. Isabelle Huppert is a strong contender, but the Academy rarely gives the award to a foreign language film. Best Supporting Actor will probably go to Mahershala Ali. Best Supporting Actress is hard to call; the category is full of established and talented actresses. My prediction is Viola Davis.

Arrival will sweep the technical awards: Editing, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Production Design. Either Zootopia or Moana will win Best Animated Feature Film, since the Academy usually just defaults to Disney or Pixar for that prize whether or not they actually deserve it. Best Original Song will probably go to “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana, once again, automatically going to Disney even though it might not deserve the win.

To see whether or not these predictions come true, tune in to the Oscars telecast on February 26 on ABC at 7:00 p.m. for red carpet coverage and 8:30 p.m. for the awards ceremony.