Predicting Presidential elections is like predicting the weather; it can be done, but not always accurately, and certainly not with more than a year until election day. However, despite those words of wisdom, I have an idea on how the 2024 presidential election could go. With a passion for presidential elections and a pension for American politics, I have a forecast waiting to be written. To begin, there is a massive given in the 2024 election, President Biden will be the nominee for the Democratic. Despite rumblings about his age, Biden’s nomination is solid. The Democrat’s excellent performance in the midterm elections is the key factor keeping away primary challengers.

The Republican nomination is all but inevitable; in a sense, the elephant in the room, with the declared candidates being Former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. The other likely candidates are Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, John Bolton, Mike Pence, and Elizabeth Cheney, all of whom have no chance. But most importantly, Governor Ronald DeSantis of Florida is all but waiting in the wings, poised to run against Trump. The Republican primary will be a contest between Trump and DeSantis. This contest will be a brutal campaign, political trench warfare as Trump realizes that without the Republican nomination in 2024, he will never be President again. I expect Trump to use every piece of dirt he can to drag DeSantis into the mud. He has already attacked DeSantis, reportedly nicknaming him “meatball Ron.”

Now, what will be the outcome of this contest? Hard to say, but there are several likely outcomes. The first is that with a split field, Trump will beat DeSantis with a plurality of votes and, using that momentum, will secure the nomination and may win or lose the national election against Biden. However, the second scenario is that the Republican establishment knows that nominating Trump will risk their chances of attaining the presidency. Thus, the republicans must unite behind a singular candidate by Iowa and New Hampshire.

This was a similar strategy used by Democratic establishment in 2020, preventing Bernie from snatching the nomination by uniting under the banners of Joe Biden. The Koch network is a wealthy and powerful group of Republican donors who have already signaled that they will back a non-Trump Republican in the primary. The network will probably back DeSantis. Although he may not be their first choice, he is the only viable option to defeating Trump in the primary.

If Trump loses the nomination, he may run third party out of spite. Even as a write-in candidate, Trump could be a spoiler. Taking just enough votes for Biden to win the electoral college through a mere plurality. Such an election could split the Republican party and destroy it permanently. Our entire political system could change, and the Democratic party would be temporarily left in the driver seat. Maybe Trump wouldn’t run the third party, but his previous threats paint a different picture. Thus ends a forecast of what could happen in 2024.